International trade faces the challenge of weakening global economic growth

International trade faces the challenge of weakening global economic growth

The foreign trade situation is grim, mainly affected by the global macroeconomic downturn.

Changjiang Securities said that since the outbreak of the epidemic in November, the PMI of the U.S. manufacturing industry fell below the boom and bust line for the first time. The PMI of the manufacturing industry in the euro area and South Korea has also fallen below the boom and bust line for five consecutive months. However, the downturn will inevitably lead to the contraction of demand. Therefore, the weakening of foreign demand is the main reason for China's export pressure.

In recent years, the global economic development has been affected by multiple factors such as the COVID-19, geopolitical conflicts, soaring energy costs, rising inflation, and the US interest rate hike.

According to the latest goods trade barometer released by the World Trade Organization (WTO) on Monday, as the global economy continues to suffer from shocks, the global demand for goods trade is cooling down, and the growth rate of goods trade may further slow down at the end of 2022 and 2023. Specifically, in Europe, the high energy prices caused by the Russian Ukrainian conflict will squeeze household spending and increase manufacturing costs; In the United States, monetary policy tightening will hit interest rate sensitive spending areas such as housing, cars and fixed investment. The increasing import costs of fuel, food and fertilizer may lead to food security and debt problems in developing countries.

Under multiple pressures, domestic trade data performed poorly. According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, in US dollars, China's total imports and exports in November totaled 522.343 billion US dollars, down 9.5% year on year and 9.1 percentage points month on month; Exports fell 8.7% year on year, the former value was - 0.3%, and the expected value was - 4.2%. In November, the growth rate of China's exports to major trade objects dropped significantly, including the year-on-year drop in the amount of exports to the United States and Hong Kong, China, which even exceeded 20%.

At present, the speed of world economic development is slowing down, and the uncertainty of the future is also increasing. The International Monetary Fund recently released a pessimistic forecast that the global economic growth rate in 2023 will be 2.7%, with a 25% probability that the actual growth rate will be less than 2%, and at least one third of the world's countries will fall into economic recession.